Table 3

Accuracy of individual studies

First author	Sample size	Surprise question results				Diagnostic test results
		Surprise Question responses	Total	Dead	Alive	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)	Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)	Accuracy (95% CI)
Rice J.	301	Not surprised	191	62	134	0.646 (0.541–0.741)	0.544 (0.485–0.602)	0.316 (0.276–0.360)	0.825 (0.779–0.863)	0.569 (0.518–0.619)
		Surprised	194	34	160
Ikari T.	1411	Not surprised	847	232	615	0.820 (0.770–0.863)	0.455 (0.425–0.4840	0.274 (0.259–0.289)	0.910 (0.886–0.929)	0.528 (0.502–0.554)
		Surprised	564	51	513
Ikari T.	1411	Not surprised	1179	636	543	0.944 (0.923–0.960)	0.263 (0.232–0.297)	0.539 (0.528–0.551)	0.836 (0.786–0.877)	0.588 (0.562–0.614)
		Surprised	232	38	194
Dogbey D.M.	43	Not surprised	21	18	3	0.667 (0.460–0.835)	0.813 (0.544–0.960)	0.857 (0.676–0.945)	0.591 (0.446–0.721)	0.721 (0.563–0.847)
		Surprised	22	9	13
Moor C.C.	140	Not surprised	39	19	20	0.679 (0.477–0.841)	0.821 (0.738–0.887)	0.487 (0.372–0.604)	0.911 (0.856–0.946)	0.793 (0.716–0.857)
		Surprised	101	9	92
Gonzalez- Jaramillo V.	174	Not surprised	83	17	66	0.850 (0.621–0.968)	0.571 (0.489–0.651)	0.205 (0.166–0.250)	0.967 (0.911–0.988)	0.603 (0.527–0.677)
		Surprised	91	3	88
Tripp D.	381 (30 days)	Not surprised	19	2	17	0.125 (0.016–0.384)	0.953 (0.927–0.973)	0.105 (0.029–0.318)	0.961 (0.954–0.968)	0.919 (0.887–0.944)
		Surprised	362	14	348
	365 (365 days)	Not surprised	108	38	70	0.469 (0.357–0.583)	0.754 (0.699–0.803)	0.352 (0.285–0.425)	0.833 (0.801–0.861)	0.690 (0.640–0.738)
		Surprised	257	43	214
Flierman I.	234	Not surprised	135	59	76	0.808 (0.699–0.891)	0.528 (0.448–0.607)	0.437 (0.389–0.486)	0.859 (0.788–0.909)	0.615 (0.550–0.678)
		Surprised	99	14	85
Kim S.H.	130 (7 days)	Not surprised	20	7	13	0.467 (0.213–0.734)	0.887 (0.815–0.938)	0.350 (0.204–0.531)	0.927 (0.888–0.954)	0.839 (0.764–0.897)
		Surprised	110	8	102
	130 (21 days)	Not surprised	54	37	17	0.529 (0.406–0.649)	0.717 (0.586–0.826)	0.685 (0.579–0.775)	0.566 (0.493–0.636)	0.615 (0.526–0.699)
		Surprised	76	33	43
	130 (42 days)	Not surprised	100	87	13	0.821 (0.734–0.889)	0.458 (0.256–0.672)	0.870 (0.821–0.907)	0.367 (0.242–0.512)	0.754 (0.671–0.825)
		Surprised	30	19	11
Ouchi K.	10 737	Not surprised	3324	685	2639	0.433 (0.409–0.458)	0.820 (0.813–0.826)	0.206 (0.196–0.217)	0.931 (0.928–0.933)	0.782 (0.776–0.788)
		Surprised	12 899	896	12 003
ErmersD.J.M.	379 (SQ1)	Not surprised	188	103	85	0.873 (0.799–0.927)	0.674 (0.614–0.731)	0.548 (0.501–0.594)	0.922 (0.879–0.950)	0.736 (0.689–0.780)
		Surprised	191	15	176
	188 (SQ2)	Not surprised	105	42	63	0.408 (0.312–0.509)	0.259 (0.170–0.365)	0.400 (0.339–0.465)	0.265 (0.196–0.348)	0.340 (0.273–0.413)
		Surprised	83	61	22
Yarnell C.	417 (AP – 365 days)	Not surprised	298	143	155	0.894 (0.835–0.937)	0.397 (0.337–0.460)	0.480 (0.452–0.508)	0.857 (0.789–0.906)	0.588 (0.539–0.635)
		Surprised	119	17	102
		Not surprised	250	132	118	0.825	0.541	0.528	0.832	0.650
	417 (SMR – 365 days)	Surprised	167	28	139	(0.757–0.881)	(0.478–0.603)	(0.490–0.565)	(0.777–0.876)	(0.602–0.696)
	288 (AP - admission)	Not surprised	53	21	32	0.636 (0.451–0.796)	0.875 (0.828–0.913)	0.396 (0.303–0.498)	0.949 (0.922–0.967)	0.847 (0.800–0.887)
		Surprised	235	12	223
	288 (SMR –admission)	Not surprised	47	16	31	0.485 (0.308–0.665)	0.878 (0.832–0.916)	0.340 (0.242–0.455)	0.930 (0.904–0.949)	0.833 (0.785–0.875)
		Surprised	241	17	224
Van WijmenM.P.S.	57	Not surprised	19	18	1	0.692 (0.482–0.857)	0.968 (0.833–0.999)	0.947 (0.720–0.992)	0.790 (0.677–0.870)	0.842 (0.721–0.925)
		Surprised	38	8	30
Ramer S.J.	377	Not surprised	124	45	79	0.672 (0.546–0.782)	0.745 (0.693–0.793)	0.363 (0.307–0.423)	0.913 (0.881–0.937)	0.732 (0.684–0.776)
		Surprised	253	22	231
Lai C.-F.	401	Not surprised	34	18	16	0.529 (0.351–0.702)	0.956 (0.930–0.975)	0.529 (0.388–0.667)	0.956 (0.939–0.969)	0.920 (0.889–0.945)
		Surprised	367	16	351
Rauh L.A.	231 (MD – UPMC)	Not surprised	90	36	54	0.706 (0.562–0.825)	0.700 (0.627–0.766)	0.400 (0.334–0.470)	0.894 (0.845–0.929)	0.701 (0.638–0.760)
		Surprised	141	15	126
	168 (RN – UPMC)	Not surprised	61	31	30	0.689 (0.534–0.818)	0.756 (0.671–0.829)	0.508 (0.417–0.599)	0.869 (0.810–0.912)	0.738 (0.665–0.803)
		Surprised	107	14	93
	199 (APP – UPMC)	Not surprised	81	35	46	0.796 (0.647–0.902)	0.703 (0.625–0.774)	0.432 (0.364–0.503)	0.924 (0.870–0.956)	0.724 (0.656–0.785)
		Surprised	118	9	109
	78 (MD – UVA)	Not surprised	39	19	20	0.864 (0.651–0.971)	0.643 (0.504–0.766)	0.487 (0.392–0.584)	0.923 (0.805–0.972)	0.705 (0.591–0.803)
		Surprised	39	3	36
	130 (RN – UVA)	Not surprised	82	29	53	0.725 (0.561–0.854)	0.411 (0.308–0.520)	0.354 (0.297–0.414)	0.771 (0.658–0.855)	0.508 (0.419–0.596)
		Surprised	48	11	37
	22 (APP – UVA)	Not surprised	17	8	9	1.000 (0.631–1.000)	0.357 (0.128–0.649)	0.471 (0.376–0.568)	1.000	0.591 (0.364–0.793)
		Surprised	5	0	5
	309 (MD –combined)	Not surprised	129	55	74	0.753 (0.639–0.847)	0.686 (0.623–0.745)	0.426 (0.371–0.483)	0.900 (0.857–0.931)	0.702 (0.648–0.753)
		Surprised	180	18	162
	298 (RN –combined)	Not surprised	143	60	83	0.706 (0.597–0.800)	0.610 (0.541–0.676)	0.420 (0.368–0.473)	0.839 (0.786–0.880)	0.638 (0.580–0.692)
		Surprised	155	25	130
	221 (APP –combined)	Not surprised	98	43	55	0.827 (0.697–0.918)	0.675 (0.598–0.745)	0.439 (0.378–0.501)	0.927 (0.874–0.959)	0.710 (0.646–0.769)
		Surprised	123	9	114
Verhoef M.- J.	245	Not surprised	203	172	31	0.891 (0.839–0.931)	0.404 (0.270–0.549)	0.847 (0.815–0.875)	0.500 (0.373–0.628)	0.788 (0.731–0.837)
		Surprised	42	21	21
Maes H.	190 (AcuteGeriatric Unit)	Not surprised	66	31	35	0.674 (0.520–0.805)	0.757 (0.679–0.825)	0.470 (0.384–0.557)	0.879 (0.826–0.918)	0.737 (0.668–0.798)
		Surprised	124	15	109
	189 (CardiologyUnit)	Not surprised	63	23	40	0.622 (0.448–0.775)	0.737 (0.659–0.805)	0.365 (0.285–0.453)	0.889 (0.840–0.924)	0.714 (0.644–0.778)
		Surprised	126	14	112
Yen Y.-F.	21 098	Not surprised	2620	799	1821	0.456 (0.432–0.479)	0.906 (0.901–0.910)	0.305 (0.291–0.319)	0.948 (0.946–0.950)	0.868 (0.864–0.873)
		Surprised	18 478	955	17 523
	193	Not surprised	103	44	59	0.786	0.569	0.427	0.867	0.632
AaronsonE.L.		Surprised	90	12	78	(0.656–0.884)	(0.482–0.654)	(0.371–0.486)	(0.794–0.916)	(0.560–0.700)
Schmidt R.J.	749	Not surprised	173	61	112	0.604 (0.502–0.700)	0.827 (0.796–0.856)	0.353 (0.302–0.407)	0.931 (0.913–0.945)	0.797 (0.766–0.825)
		Surprised	576	40	536
Lakin J.R.	1448 (Nurses)	Not surprised	352	112	240	0.526 (0.457–0.595)	0.806 (0.783–0.827)	0.318 (0.282–0.356)	0.908 (0.895–0.919)	0.765 (0.742–0.786)
		Surprised	1096	101	995
	1163 (Physicians)	Not surprised	452	143	309	0.794 (0.728–0.851)	0.686 (0.656–0.715)	0.316 (0.291–0.343)	0.948 (0.932–0.961)	0.703 (0.675–0.729)
		Surprised	711	37	674
VeldhovenC.M.M.	292 (SQ1)	Not surprised	161	24	137	0.923 (0.749–0.991)	0.485 (0.424–0.547)	0.149 (0.130–0.171)	0.985 (0.944–0.996)	0.524 (0.465–0.583)
		Surprised	131	2	129
	161 (SQ2)	Not surprised	22	10	12	0.417 (0.221–0.634)	0.912 (0.852–0.954)	0.455 (0.289–0.631)	0.899 (0.864–0.926)	0.830 (0.772–0.892)
		Surprised	139	14	125
Burke K.	325 (majority vote– 90 days)	Not surprised	36	15	21	0.833 (0.586–0.964)	0.932 (0.897–0.957)	0.417 (0.310–0.531)	0.990 (0.971–0.996)	0.926 (0.892–0.952)
		Surprised	289	3	286
	306 (majority vote– 365 days)	Not surprised	106	25	81	0.833 (0.653–0.944)	0.707 (0.649–0.760)	0.236 (0.195–0.282)	0.975 (0.946–0.989)	0.719 (0.665–0.769)
		Surprised	200	5	195
	238 (100% agreement - 90 days)	Not surprised	21	14	7	0.933 (0.681–0.998)	0.969 (0.936–0.987)	0.667 (0.488–0.808)	0.995 (0.970–0.999)	0.966 (0.935–0.985)
		Surprised	217	1	216
	175 (100% agreement – 365 days)	Not surprised	57	21	36	0.955 (0.772–0.999)	0.765 (0.689–0.829)	0.368 (0.302–0.441)	0.992 (0.945–0.999)	0.789 (0.721–0.847)
		Surprised	118	1	117
	290 (75–100% agreement – 90 days)	Not surprised	26	14	12	0.824 (0.566–0.962)	0.956 (0.925–0.977)	0.539 (0.391–0.679)	0.989 (0.969–0.996)	0.948 (0.916–0.971)
		Surprised	264	3	261
	236 (75–100% agreement – 365 days)	Not surprised	80	24	56	0.923 (0.749–0.991)	0.733 (0.668–0.792)	0.300 (0.250–0.355)	0.987 (0.953–0.997)	0.754 (0.694–0.808)
		Surprised	156	2	154
	122 (Neurology –365 days)	Not surprised	28	7	21	0.875 (0.474–0.997)	0.816 (0.732–0.882)	0.250 (0.173–0.347)	0.989 (0.937–0.998)	0.820 (0.740–0.883)
		Surprised	94	1	93
	27 (Oncology – 365 days)	Not surprised	22	12	10	1.000 (0.735–1.000)	0.333 (0.118–0.616)	0.546 (0.456–0.632)	1.000	0.630 (0.424–0.806)
		Surprised	5	0	5
	73 (Congenital –365 days)	Not surprised	24	4	20	0.667 (0.223–0.957)	0.702 (0.577–0.807)	0.167 (0.093–0.282)	0.959 (0.882–0.987)	0.699 (0.580–0.801)
		Surprised	49	2	47
Ouchi K.	207	Not surprised	102	34	68	0.773 (0.622–0.885)	0.583 (0.503–0.660)	0.333 (0.282–0.289)	0.905 (0.844–0.943)	0.623 (0.553–0.690)
		Surprised	105	10	95
Liyanage T.	187	Not surprised	80	30	50	0.714 (0.554–0.843)	0.655 (0.572–0.732)	0.375 (0.309–0.446)	0.888 (0.829–0.928)	0.668 (0.596–0.735)
		Surprised	107	12	95
Mitchell G.K.	2840 (Intuition)	Not surprised	154	32	122	0.337 (0.243–0.441)	0.956 (0.947–0.963)	0.208 (0.159–0.268)	0.977 (0.973–0.980)	0.935 (0.925–0.944)
		Surprised	2686	63	2623
	1525 (ST)	Not surprised	179	25	154	0.532 (0.381–0.679)	0.896 (0.879–0.911)	0.140 (0.107–0.181)	0.984 (0.978–0.988)	0.885 (0.868–0.900)
		Surprised	1346	22	1324
Ebke M.	236 (Neurorehabilitation Physicians)	Not surprised	45	17	28	0.500 (0.324–0.676)	0.861 (0.806–0.906)	0.378 (0.273–0.496)	0.911 (0.879–0.935)	0.809 (0.753–0.857)
		Surprised	191	17	174
	236 (Palliative CarePhysicians)	Not surprised	83	23	60	0.677 (0.495–0.826)	0.703 (0.635–0.765)	0.277 (0.219–0.344)	0.928 (0.887–0.955)	0.699 (0.636–0.757)
		Surprised	153	11	142
Mudge A.M.	100	Not surprised	52	16	36	0.889 (0.653–0.986)	0.561 (0.447–0.670)	0.308 (0.249–0.374)	0.958 (0.860–0.989)	0.620 (0.518–0.715)
		Surprised	48	2	46
Salat H.	488	Not surprised	171	56	115	0.644 (0.534–0.744)	0.713 (0.666–0.757)	0.328 (0.281–0.378)	0.902 (0.874–0.925)	0.701 (0.658–0.741)
		Surprised	317	31	286
Malhotra R.	208 (180 days)	Not surprised	203	10	193	0.769 (0.462–0.950)	0.010 (0.001–0.037)	0.049 (0.037–0.065)	0.400 (0.109–0.785)	0.058 (0.030–0.099)
		Surprised	5	3	2
	189 (365 days)	Not surprised	162	13	149	0.650 (0.408–0.846)	0.118 (0.074–0.177)	0.080 (0.059–0.108)	0.741 (0.580–0.855)	0.175 (0.123–0.236)
		Surprised	27	7	20
Hadique S.	500 (Derivation cohort)	Not surprised	238	148	90	0.822 (0.758–0.875)	0.719 (0.666–0.767)	0.622 (0.577–0.665)	0.878 (0.839–0.908)	0.756 (0.716–0.793)
		Surprised	262	32	230
	543 (Validation cohort)	Not surprised	204	139	65	0.739 (0.671–0.801)	0.817 (0.773–0.856)	0.681 (0.628–0.730)	0.856 (0.822–0.883)	0.790 (0.753–0.824)
		Surprised	339	49	290
Gomez- Batiste X.	1059 (365 days)	Not surprised	837	268	569	0.937 (0.902–0.962)	0.264 (0.233–0.297)	0.320 (0.309–0.332)	0.919 (0.877–0.947)	0.446 (0.416–0.476)
		Surprised	222	18	204
	1059 (730 days)	Not surprised	837	373	464	0.914 (0.883–0.940)	0.287 (0.253–0.324)	0.446 (0.432–0.460)	0.842 (0.792–0.882)	0.529 (0.498–0.559)
		Surprised	222	35	187
Javier A.D.	388	Not surprised	137	33	104	0.635 (0.490–0.764)	0.691 (0.638–0.740)	0.241 (0.196–0.292)	0.924 (0.894–0.946)	0.683 (0.634–0.729)
		Surprised	251	19	232
Amro O.W.	201	Not surprised	50	22	28	0.550 (0.385–0.707)	0.826 (0.759–0.881)	0.440 (0.336–0.549)	0.881 (0.839–0.913)	0.771 (0.707–0.827)
		Surprised	151	18	133
Lakin J.R.	1737	Not surprised	114	23	91	0.205 (0.135–0.292)	0.944 (0.932–0.955)	0.202 (0.143–0.277)	0.945 (0.940–0.950)	0.896 (0.881–0.910)
		Surprised	1623	89	1534
Hamano J.	2361 (7 days)	Not surprised	931	282	649	0.847 (0.804–0.884)	0.680 (0.659–0.700)	0.303 (0.287–0.320)	0.964 (0.955–0.972)	0.704 (0.685–0.722)
		Surprised	1430	51	1379
	2361 (30 days)	Not surprised	1851	1066	785	0.956 (0.942–0.967)	0.370 (0.343–0.397)	0.576 (0.565–0.587)	0.904 (0.876–0.926)	0.647 (0.627–0.666)
		Surprised	510	49	461
Feyi K.	178	Not surprised	58	37	21	0.726 (0.583–0.841)	0.835 (0.758–0.895)	0.638 (0.535–0.730)	0.883 (0.828–0.923)	0.803 (0.737–0.859)
		Surprised	120	14	106
Moroni M.	231	Not surprised	126	87	39	0.837 (0.751–0.902)	0.693 (0.605–0.772)	0.691 (0.629–0.746)	0.838 (0.768–0.890)	0.758 (0.697–0.811)
		Surprised	105	17	88
O'CallaghanA.	501 (180 days)	Not surprised	99	56	43	0.727 (0.614–0.823)	0.899 (0.866–0.926)	0.566 (0.487–0.641)	0.948 (0.926–0.963)	0.872 (0.840–0.900)
		Surprised	402	21	381
	501 (365 days)	Not surprised	99	67	32	0.626 (0.527–0.718)	0.919 (0.887–0.944)	0.677 (0.593–0.751)	0.901 (0.876–0.920)	0.856 (0.823–0.886)
		Surprised	402	40	362
Da SilvaGane M.	3896	Not surprised	938	281	657	0.496 (0.455–0.538)	0.803 (0.789–0.816)	0.300 (0.278–0.323)	0.904 (0.896–0.911)	0.758 (0.744–0.772)
		Surprised	2958	285	2673
Pang W.-F.	367	Not surprised	109	27	82	0.614 (0.455–0.756)	0.746 (0.695–0.793)	0.248 (0.196–0.308)	0.934 (0.907–0.9540	0.730 (0.682–0.775)
		Surprised	258	17	241
Haga K.	138	Not surprised	120	39	81	0.886 (0.754–0.962)	0.138 (0.076–0.225)	0.325 (0.297–0.355)	0.722 (0.497–0.873)	0.377 (0.296–0.463)
		Surprised	18	5	13
Fenning S.	172	Not surprised	38	6	32	0.353 (0.142–0.617)	0.794 (0.721–0.854)	0.158 (0.084–0.277)	0.918 (0.886–0.941)	0.750 (0.678–0.813)
		Surprised	134	11	123
Moss A.H.	826	Not surprised	131	53	78	0.747 (0.629–0.842)	0.897 (0.873–0.918)	0.405 (0.346–0.466)	0.974 (0.962–0.983)	0.884 (0.860–0.905)
		Surprised	695	18	677
Cohen L.M.	450	Not surprised	71	39	32	0.379 (0.285–0.480)	0.908 (0.872–0.936)	0.549 (0.447–0.648)	0.831 (0.808–0.852)	0.787 (0.746–0.824)
		Surprised	379	64	315
Moss A.H.	147	Not surprised	34	10	24	0.455 (0.244–0.678)	0.808 (0.728–0.873)	0.294 (0.189–0.427)	0.894 (0.851–0.926)	0.755 (0.677–0.822)
		Surprised	113	12	101
Ros M.M.	3140 (ICU stay)	Not surprised	153	98	55	0.363 (0.306–0.423)	0.981 (0.975–0.986)	0.641 (0.568–0.708)	0.942 (0.937–0.947)	0.928 (0.918–0.937)
		Surprised	2987	172	2815
	3140 (Hospital stay)	Not surprised	252	148	104	0.378 (0.329–0.428)	0.962 (0.954–0.969)	0.587 (0.531–0.641)	0.916 (0.909–0.921)	0.889 (0.878–0.900)
		Surprised	2888	244	2644
	3140 (365 days)	Not surprised	609	363	246	0.509 (0.471–0.546)	0.899 (0.886–0.910)	0.596 (0.562–0.629)	0.862 (0.852–0.871)	0.810 (0.796–0.824)
		Surprised	2531	350	2181
GuliniJ.E.H.M.B	170	Not surprised	89	41	48	0.820 (0.686–0.914)	0.600 (0.507–0.688)	0.461 (0.398–0.524)	0.889 (0.813–0.936)	0.665 (0.588–0.7350
		Surprised	81	9	72
Haydar S.A.	6122	Not surprised	918	107	811	0.682 (0.603–0.754)	0.864 (0.855–0.873)	0.117 (0.104–0.130)	0.990 (0.988–0.992)	0.859 (0.850–0.868)
		Surprised	5204	50	5154
Carmen J.	49	Not surprised	20	7	13	0.778 (0.400–0.972)	0.675 (0.509–0.814)	0.350 (0.234–0.487)	0.931 (0.796–0.979)	0.694 (0.546–0.818)
		Surprised	29	2	27
Barnes S.	231	Not surprised	95	11	84	0.786 (0.492–0.953)	0.613 (0.545–0.678)	0.116 (0.087–0.153)	0.978 (0.942–0.992)	0.623 (0.558–0.686)
		Surprised	136	3	133
Straw S.	114 (Consultants)	Not surprised	64	33	31	0.846 (0.695–0.941)	0.587 (0.467–0.699)	0.516 (0.441–0.590)	0.880 (0.774–0.940)	0.675 (0.581–0.760)
		Surprised	50	6	44
	128 (JuniorDoctors)	Not surprised	65	33	32	0.750 (0.597–0.868)	0.619 (0.507–0.723)	0.508 (0.428–0.587)	0.825 (0.734–0.890)	0.664 (0.575–0.745)
		Surprised	63	11	52
	89 (Heart FailureNurses)	Not surprised	60	27	33	0.900 (0.735–0.979)	0.441 (0.312–0.576)	0.450 (0.388–0.514)	0.897 (0.740–0.963)	0.596 (0.496–0.698)
		Surprised	29	3	26
	123 (Staff Nurses)	Not surprised	50	29	21	0.659 (0.501–0.795)	0.734 (0.623–0.827)	0.580 (0.475–0.678)	0.795 (0.715–0.856)	0.707 (0.619–0.786)
		Surprised	73	15	58
	119 (2 or more)	Not surprised	62	26	36	0.818	0.577	0.500	0.860	0.659
		Surprised	57	8	49	(0.673–0.918)	(0.465–0.683)	(0.429–0.571)	(0.761–0.922)	(0.570–0.740)
	129 (3 or more)	Not surprised	54	31	23	0.705 (0.548–0.832)	0.729 (0.622–0.820)	0.574 (0.475–0.667)	0.827 (0.748–0.885)	0.721 (0.635–0.796)
		Surprised	75	13	62
	129 (4 ‘no’s’)	Not surprised	18	14	4	0.318 (0.186–0.476)	0.953 (0.884–0.987)	0.778 (0.551–0.909)	0.730 (0.687–0.769)	0.736 (0.652–0.810)
		Surprised	111	30	81
	129 (all ‘no’)	Not surprised	35	23	12	0.523 (0.367–0.675)	0.859 (0.766–0.925)	0.657 (0.514–0.777)	0.777 (0.716–0.827)	0.744 (0.660–0.817)
		Surprised	94	21	73
	32 (Diabetes)	Not surprised	20	9	11	0.900 (0.555–0.998)	0.500 (0.282–0.718)	0.450 (0.339–0.566)	0.917 (0.621–0.987)	0.625 (0.437–0.789)
		Surprised	12	1	11
	82 (no diabetes)	Not surprised	44	24	20	0.828 (0.642–0.942)	0.623 (0.479–0.752)	0.546 (0.450–0.638)	0.868 (0.743–0.938)	0.695 (0.584–0.792)
		Surprised	38	5	33
	35 (IHD)	Not surprised	20	14	6	0.824 (0.566–0.962)	0.667 (0.450–0.867)	0.700 (0.539–0.823)	0.800 (0.577–0.922)	0.743 (0.567–0.875)
		Surprised	15	3	12
	79 (no IHD)	Not surprised	44	19	25	0.864 (0.651–0.971)	0.562 (0.424–0.693)	0.432 (0.352–0.516)	0.914 (0.784–0.969)	0.646 (0.530–0.750)
		Surprised	35	3	32
	18 (eGFR<30)	Not surprised	17	10	7	0.909 (0.587–0.998)	0.000 (0.000–0.410)	0.588 (0.542–0.633)	0.000	0.556 (0.308–0.785)
		Surprised	1	1	0
	96 (eGFR>30)	Not surprised	47	23	24	0.821 (0.631–0.939)	0.647 (0.522–0.759)	0.489 (0.399–0.580)	0.898 (0.796–0.952)	0.698 (0.596–0.788)
		Surprised	49	5	44
Mahes A.	301	Not surprised	136	25	111	0.807 (0.625–0.926)	0.589 (0.528–0.648)	0.184 (0.152–0.220)	0.964 (0.928–0.982)	0.611 (0.554–0.667)
		Surprised	165	6	159
Lin C.A.	840	Not surprised	214	32	182	0.615 (0.483–0.748)	0.768 (0.739–0.798)	0.149 (0.101–0.196)	0.968 (0.954–0.982)	0.759 (0.730–0.788)
		Surprised	626	20	606
Um Y.W.	300	Not surprised	118	25	93	0.833 (0.653–0.944)	0.662 (0.603–0.718)	0.212 (0.176–0.253)	0.973 (0.942–0.988)	0.679 (0.623–0.731)
		Surprised	182	5	177
Gaffney L.	191	Not surprised	56	20	36	0.571 (0.394–0.737)	0.769 (0.695–0.833)	0.357 (0.270–0.455)	0.889 (0.844–0.922)	0.733 (0.664–0.794)
		Surprised	135	15	120

Sensitivity (the ability of the prompt to successfully identify those patients who were dying); specificity (the ability of the prompt to successfully identify those who were not dying); positive predictive value (the proportion of patients who died when the respondent predicted death); negative predictive value (the proportion of the patients who survived when the respondent predicted survival); accuracy (the proportion of correct predictions among all cases).