Table 3

Accuracy of clinician probability estimates using different double thresholds (including indeterminate values)

Estimate cut-offPrediction*Outcome (within 72 hours)OutcomesProportion of indeterminate cases
50%–50% Indeterminate 4056965%
41%–59% Indeterminate 8012220210%
31%–69% Indeterminate 21829651426%
21%–79% Indeterminate 37448786143%
11%–89% Indeterminate 531700123162%
  • *Each estimate was categorised in to a group if the estimate was above or below the cut-off. Scores that were indeterminate were omitted from the analysis. PPV (positive predictive value; the proportion of patients who died when the clinician predicted dying, eg, 787/1265 for the 50% cut-off), NPV (negative predictive value; the proportion of patients who survived when the clinician predicted survival, eg, 456/619 for the 50% cut-off).