Table 3

Accuracy of clinician probability estimates using different double thresholds (including indeterminate values)

Estimate cut-offPrediction*Outcome (within 72 hours)OutcomesProportion of indeterminate cases
DiedSurvivedTotal
NPPVNPV
>50%Die787478126562%
<50%Survive16345661974%
50%–50%Indeterminate4056965%
≥60%Die766446121263%
≤40%Survive14442256675%
41%–59%Indeterminate8012220210%
≥70%Die685356104166%
≤30%Survive8733842580%
31%–69%Indeterminate21829651426%
≥80%Die57724782470%
≤20%Survive3925629587%
21%–79%Indeterminate37448786143%
≥90%Die44014958975%
≤10%Survive1914116088%
11%–89%Indeterminate531700123162%
  • *Each estimate was categorised in to a group if the estimate was above or below the cut-off. Scores that were indeterminate were omitted from the analysis. PPV (positive predictive value; the proportion of patients who died when the clinician predicted dying, eg, 787/1265 for the 50% cut-off), NPV (negative predictive value; the proportion of patients who survived when the clinician predicted survival, eg, 456/619 for the 50% cut-off).